Katherine Buso (*)
The recent escalation of the trade war between China and the United States has triggered significant reactions in the global agricultural market.
With China’s new tariffs on American agricultural products, the world’s largest food importer is seeking alternatives in Latin America, Europe, and the Pacific region to meet its demand for meat, dairy, and grains.
This shift in supply chains could benefit exporters such as Brazil, Argentina, Australia, and European Union countries.
Reconfiguration of Meat Imports
China announced a 10% to 15% increase in tariffs on $21 billion worth of American agricultural products, directly affecting U.S. imports of beef, pork, and chicken.
According to Pan Chenjun, senior analyst at Rabobank in Hong Kong, "there will be a redistribution of trade after China's import tariffs on U.S. goods." In this scenario, Brazil, Spain, the Netherlands, and other European Union countries are becoming the primary suppliers of pork and beef to the Chinese market.
Impact on the Soybean and Grain Market
About half of U.S. soybean exports go to China, which has been reducing its dependence on American soybeans since the first phase of the trade war during the Trump administration. With the new tariffs, Brazil and Argentina are expected to strengthen their position in this market, consolidating themselves as China’s primary soybean suppliers.
Dennis Voznesenski, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney, highlights that "South American suppliers will be the biggest beneficiaries, and producers of other oilseeds, such as canola, may also see a rise in demand."
Australia, which has harvested a large sorghum crop, is also expected to gain market share in China, replacing some of the U.S. commodity exports.
Increase in Poultry and By-Product Exports
Although China has imposed a 15% tariff on U.S. chicken products, some imports will continue due to the difficulty in quickly replacing certain items, such as chicken feet, which are highly valued in Chinese cuisine but have little demand in the American market.
Pan Chenjun explains that "Chinese importers will simply pay the tariffs and continue purchasing from the United States while seeking alternative sources." However, countries like Brazil and Argentina could take advantage of this gap to expand their chicken exports to China.
Market Redirection and Opportunities for Exporters
China is one of the world’s largest consumers of meat and grains, and any change in its trade policy significantly impacts global supply chains. In 2024, the country imported $16.26 billion worth of beef, pork, and chicken from the United States, and the reconfiguration of these flows may create opportunities for alternative exporters.
Analysts point out that China is likely to strengthen trade relationships with reliable long-term suppliers, reducing its vulnerability to future trade disputes.
This shift presents an opportunity for Latin American and Oceanic countries to establish themselves as China’s strategic partners in food and commodity supply.
Conclusion
The trade war between China and the United States is reshaping the global agricultural trade map. The tariffs imposed by China on American products are driving demand for alternative suppliers, benefiting countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Australia, and European Union members.
This new landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for international markets, reinforcing the importance of diversifying trade partners in the global economy.
(*) Specialist in Economics and International Affairs, graduated with academic merit from the School of Economics at Armando Álvares Penteado University (FAAP-SP) in 2014. Postgraduate degree in Statistics from the Pontifical Catholic University (PUC-Chile). Editorial Consultant at Ciência Capital. International Columnist at Rádio Alta Potência. International Columnist at Rádio Agro Hoje. CEO of Business Intelligence at BlueBI Solution in São Paulo.
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